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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 6-S.Graham 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model