Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CHI offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- MIN defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- MIN on 3 more days rest than CHI
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
CHI
MIN
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:49 TD MIN (5:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – MIN 6
- Q2 14:27 FG MIN (14:27) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. CHI 0 – MIN 10
- Q2 05:45 TD CHI (5:45) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – MIN 10
- Q2 00:33 TD MIN (:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 31-J.McKinnon for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [30-D.Hurst]. Penalty on CHI-30-D.Hurst, Roughing the Passer, offsetting. Penalty on MIN-31-J.McKinnon, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CHI 7 – MIN 16
- Q3 10:49 TD MIN (10:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – MIN 23
- Q3 04:28 FG CHI (4:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 10 – MIN 24
- Q4 08:52 TD MIN (8:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-31-C.Prosinski, Illegal Contact, declined. CHI 10 – MIN 30
- Q4 05:19 TD CHI (5:19) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 22-M.Forte for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – MIN 31
- Q4 01:57 TD MIN (1:57) (Run formation) 74-A.Shepherd reported in as eligible. 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 48-Z.Line for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – MIN 37
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 23%
(12:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 7, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-58-J.Anderson.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to MIN 29, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 64%
(14:27) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(8:11) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to CHI 48, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 62%
(5:45) (Shotgun) 22-M.Forte up the middle to MIN 34 for 2 yards (99-D.Hunter, 34-A.Sendejo).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%
(4:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(2:06) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to CHI 42, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(14:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to MIN 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 22%
(10:11) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.