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Chicago Bears

5-9 HC John Fox
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Minnesota Vikings

9-5 HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 13:00 ET TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CHI
49.6%
MIN
50.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • MIN on 3 more days rest than CHI

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 23 16–30
–
MIN 24 17–31
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

CHI

Bryce Callahan CB Doubtful Quadricep
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Calf
Sherrick McManis CB Questionable Concussion
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
Zach Miller TE Questionable Ribs
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Ankle
Will Sutton DE Questionable Knee

MIN

Scott Crichton DE Out Concussion
Harrison Smith S Out Knee
Anthony Barr LB Out Groin
Charles Johnson WR Out Ankle
Everson Griffen DE Questionable Shoulder
Linval Joseph DT Questionable Foot
Robert Blanton S Probable Knee
Andrew Sendejo S Probable Knee
Brandon Watts LB Probable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 17
–
MIN 38

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:49 TD MIN (5:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 14:27 FG MIN (14:27) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. CHI 0 – MIN 10
  • Q2 05:45 TD CHI (5:45) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – MIN 10
  • Q2 00:33 TD MIN (:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 31-J.McKinnon for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [30-D.Hurst]. Penalty on CHI-30-D.Hurst, Roughing the Passer, offsetting. Penalty on MIN-31-J.McKinnon, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CHI 7 – MIN 16
  • Q3 10:49 TD MIN (10:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – MIN 23
  • Q3 04:28 FG CHI (4:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 10 – MIN 24
  • Q4 08:52 TD MIN (8:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-31-C.Prosinski, Illegal Contact, declined. CHI 10 – MIN 30
  • Q4 05:19 TD CHI (5:19) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 22-M.Forte for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – MIN 31
  • Q4 01:57 TD MIN (1:57) (Run formation) 74-A.Shepherd reported in as eligible. 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 48-Z.Line for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – MIN 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 23%

    (12:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 7, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-58-J.Anderson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to MIN 29, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 64%

    (14:27) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:11) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to CHI 48, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 62%

    (5:45) (Shotgun) 22-M.Forte up the middle to MIN 34 for 2 yards (99-D.Hunter, 34-A.Sendejo).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%

    (4:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:06) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to CHI 42, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to MIN 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 22%

    (10:11) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →