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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 52

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 7, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-58-J.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -3.30 EP
KICK -2.10 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model