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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 36

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(5:45) (Shotgun) 22-M.Forte up the middle to MIN 34 for 2 yards (99-D.Hunter, 34-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model