Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 0

(8:11) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to CHI 48, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.49 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model