Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 82

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Chicago Bears 10

(2:06) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to CHI 42, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.23 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 82, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model