4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
KC Away

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
OAK Home

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 16:05 O.co Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

KC
49.4%
OAK
50.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.162 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • KC defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
OAK 25
Projected margin: OAK by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

KC

Husain Abdullah S Out Neck
Justin Houston LB Out Knee
Mitch Morse C Out Concussion
De'Anthony Thomas WR Out Concussion
Jeff Allen G Questionable Ankle
Allen Bailey DE Questionable Calf
Mike Devito DE Probable Shoulder
Tamba Hali LB Probable Knee
Dustin Colquitt P Probable right Knee
Chris Conley WR Probable Hand
Marcus Cooper CB Probable Thumb
Eric Fisher T Probable Neck
Dee Ford LB Probable Back
Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin
Joshua Mauga LB Probable Heel
Spencer Ware RB Probable Hamstring
Charcandrick West RB Probable Hamstring

OAK

Neiron Ball LB Out Knee
Keith McGill CB Out Ankle
Rodney Hudson C Doubtful Ankle
Taiwan Jones RB Doubtful Knee
Neiko Thorpe CB Questionable Knee
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 34
–
OAK 20

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:29 TD LV (10:29) 28-L.Murray right guard to KC 1 for 1 yard (96-J.Howard). Oakland challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 73-M.McCants reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – OAK 6
  • Q1 05:03 TD KC (5:03) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – OAK 7
  • Q2 00:19 TD LV (:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 15-M.Crabtree for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – OAK 13
  • Q3 09:19 TD KC (9:19) 32-S.Ware left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – OAK 14
  • Q3 02:15 TD LV (2:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 86-L.Smith for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-22-M.Peters, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 14 – OAK 20
  • Q4 11:19 TD KC (11:19) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 19-J.Maclin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – OAK 20
  • Q4 08:03 TD KC (8:03) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 19-J.Maclin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-20-N.Allen was injured during the play. His return is Probable. KC 26 – OAK 20
  • Q4 03:27 TD KC (3:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 89-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Branch at LV 38. 27-T.Branch for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-72-D.Penn was injured during the play. His return is Probable. KC 32 – OAK 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 64%

    (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 89-A.Cooper.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 54%

    (13:22) 7-M.King punts 30 yards to KC 9, Center-59-J.Condo. 85-F.Hammond MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 10. 85-F.Hammond to KC 10 for no gain (42-L.Asante). PENALTY on KC-54-D.Moses, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 10.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LV 43, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-J.Ross to KC 49 for 8 yards (54-D.Moses).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%

    (8:59) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to KC 8, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 85-F.Hammond.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LV 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-J.Ross to LV 38 for 13 yards (49-D.Sorensen). PENALTY on KC-54-D.Moses, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LV 38.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 39%

    (4:29) 7-M.King punts 37 yards to KC 8, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 85-F.Hammond. PENALTY on KC-31-M.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:52) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to LV 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-J.Ross to LV 14 for no gain (17-C.Conley).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:28) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to KC 29, Center-59-J.Condo. 85-F.Hammond to LV 42 for 29 yards (54-K.Toomer).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LV 37, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 17 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 73%

    (5:41) 11-S.Janikowski 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 18 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 31 for -6 yards (51-F.Zombo).