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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 45

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 7-M.King punts 37 yards to KC 8, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 85-F.Hammond. PENALTY on KC-31-M.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model