Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(1:28) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to KC 29, Center-59-J.Condo. 85-F.Hammond to LV 42 for 29 yards (54-K.Toomer).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.11 EP
54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 81, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model