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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 26 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model