Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LV 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-J.Ross to LV 38 for 13 yards (49-D.Sorensen). PENALTY on KC-54-D.Moses, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LV 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model