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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Thursday 2015-11-26 · 12:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

PHI
49.5%
DET
50.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.033 vs Mark Sanchez (PHI) -0.156 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • PHI offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 22
–
DET 23
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PHI

Ryan Mathews RB Out Concussion
Zach Ertz TE Out Concussion
Jason Kelce C Questionable Knee
Sam Bradford QB Questionable Concussion
Jason Peters T Questionable Back
Kiko Alonso LB Probable Ankle
Connor Barwin LB Probable Quadricep
DeMeco Ryans LB Probable Hamstring
Cedric Thornton DE Probable Ankle
Walter Thurmond S Probable Hamstring

DET

Don Carey S Questionable Back
Darius Slay CB Questionable Neck
Calvin Johnson WR Questionable Ankle
Caraun Reid DT Questionable Ankle
Gabe Wright DT Questionable Ankle
Crezdon Butler CB Probable Teeth
Eric Ebron TE Probable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 14
–
DET 45

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:14 TD DET (2:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 25-T.Riddick for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 14:26 TD PHI (14:26) (Shotgun) 3-M.Sanchez pass short right to 87-B.Celek for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – DET 7
  • Q2 07:58 TD DET (7:58) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – DET 13
  • Q2 05:04 FG DET (5:04) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. PHI 7 – DET 17
  • Q2 00:17 TD DET (:17) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 81-C.Johnson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – DET 23
  • Q3 07:13 TD DET (7:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 81-C.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – DET 30
  • Q3 05:10 TD DET (5:10) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 81-C.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – DET 37
  • Q4 10:45 TD DET (10:45) 77-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 35-J.Bell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – DET 44
  • Q4 03:02 TD PHI (3:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-M.Sanchez pass deep left to 81-J.Matthews for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-32-J.Ihedigbo, Illegal Contact, declined. PHI 13 – DET 45

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 14 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 73%

    (9:39) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 20 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (8:21) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to PHI 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 17 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:47) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to DET 35, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 15-G.Tate to DET 35 for no gain (16-S.Ajirotutu).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:29) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to DET 44, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 16-L.Moore to DET 45 for 1 yard (16-S.Ajirotutu).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%

    (5:04) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:19) 8-D.Jones punts 60 yards to DET 22, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 16-L.Moore to DET 36 for 14 yards (14-R.Cooper). PENALTY on DET-10-C.Fuller, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 22.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:15) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to DET 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:34) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to PHI 42, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:27) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to DET 16, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 15-G.Tate to DET 25 for 9 yards (47-T.Burton).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:28) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to DET 18, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:14) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to PHI 40, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 45 for 5 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:15) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to PHI 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 30 for -2 yards (10-C.Fuller).