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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 87

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to DET 44, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 16-L.Moore to DET 45 for 1 yard (16-S.Ajirotutu).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 87, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 45, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model