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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 83

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to DET 35, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 15-G.Tate to DET 35 for no gain (16-S.Ajirotutu).

The Three Options

GO -3.32 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.15 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 83, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model