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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Detroit Lions 38

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to DET 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.09 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP