Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 82

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 8-D.Jones punts 60 yards to DET 22, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 16-L.Moore to DET 36 for 14 yards (14-R.Cooper). PENALTY on DET-10-C.Fuller, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 82, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model