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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

NYG
51.4%
NO
48.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYG offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYG 25
–
NO 24
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYG

Prince Amukamara CB Out Pectoral
Victor Cruz WR Out Calf
Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Out Hamstring
J.T. Thomas LB Out Ankle
Jon Beason LB Questionable Ankle
Uani 'Unga LB Probable Neck
Odell Beckham WR Probable Hamstring
Geoff Schwartz G Probable Ankle

NO

David Hawthorne LB Out Hamstring
Andrus Peat T Out Knee
Dannell Ellerbe LB Doubtful Hip
Keenan Lewis CB Questionable Hip
Terron Armstead T Probable Knee
Marques Colston WR Probable Not Injury Related
Jahri Evans G Probable Not Injury Related
Mike McGlynn G Probable Not Injury Related
Damian Swann CB Probable Concussion
Kevin Williams DT Probable Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 49
–
NO 52

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 52 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:43 TD NYG (9:43) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 1 NYG 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 07:45 TD NO (7:45) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 83-W.Snead for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 34, YAC 0 NYG 7 – NO 6
  • Q1 02:30 TD NO (2:30) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 10-B.Cooks for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 22 NYG 7 – NO 13
  • Q2 13:34 TD NYG (13:34) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 0 NYG 13 – NO 14
  • Q2 11:15 TD NO (11:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 12-M.Colston for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 13, YAC 40 NYG 14 – NO 20
  • Q2 01:50 TD NO (1:50) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0 NYG 14 – NO 27
  • Q2 00:07 TD NYG (:07) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 34-S.Vereen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 1 NYG 20 – NO 28
  • Q3 13:08 TD NYG (13:08) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 49, YAC 1 NYG 27 – NO 28
  • Q3 10:14 TD NO (10:14) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 10-B.Cooks for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 18, YAC 3 NYG 28 – NO 34
  • Q3 00:33 TD NO (:33) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 82-B.Watson for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 20, YAC 0 NYG 28 – NO 41
  • Q4 12:24 TD NYG (12:24) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 17-D.Harris for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-27-D.Swann was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Pass 9, YAC 0 NYG 34 – NO 42
  • Q4 09:37 TD NYG (9:37) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 17-D.Harris for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 20, YAC 0 NYG 41 – NO 42
  • Q4 07:23 TD NYG (7:23) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 83-W.Snead INTERCEPTED by 38-T.McBride (41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie) at NYG 37. 38-T.McBride for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 48 – NO 42
  • Q4 00:41 TD NO (:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 28-C.Spiller for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 7, YAC 2 NYG 49 – NO 48
  • Q4 00:05 FG NO (:05) 5-K.Forbath 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown. NYG 49 – NO 52

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to NYG 27, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-D.Harris to NYG 40 for 13 yards (33-J.Sanford).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (9:43) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 1

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:40) 9-B.Wing punts 62 yards to NO 4, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-94-M.Herzlich.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 36%

    (4:26) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (12:24) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 17-D.Harris for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-27-D.Swann was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Pass 9, YAC 0

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:37) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to NYG 35, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:51) (Run formation) 22-M.Ingram right guard to NO 31 for 2 yards (47-U.Unga).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:20) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to NO 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 23-M.Murphy to NYG 47 for 24 yards (43-C.Dahl). FUMBLES (43-C.Dahl), recovered by NO-83-W.Snead at NYG 47. 83-W.Snead to NYG 47 for no gain (9-B.Wing). PENALTY on NYG-9-B.Wing, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NYG 47. The ball was fumbled FORWARD, and ruled down at the 47 yardline. The penalty for a face mask moved it to the 32.