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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 47

New York Giants 28 – New Orleans Saints 35

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.96 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP