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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 9

New York Giants 28 – New Orleans Saints 42

What Actually Happened

(12:24) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 17-D.Harris for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-27-D.Swann was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Pass 9, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.87 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 9, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model