Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 42 – New York Giants 35

(10:37) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to NYG 35, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 82, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model