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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 66

New York Giants 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 9-B.Wing punts 62 yards to NO 4, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-94-M.Herzlich.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.59 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model