NYJ @ NE — 4th & Data

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HC Todd Bowles

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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick

Sunday 2015-10-25 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

NYJ

35.8%

64.2%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NE offense: +0.208 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.321 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) +0.129 EPA/dropback
NYJ defense: -0.254 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 22

–

NE 27

Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NYJ

Bilal Powell RB Out Ankle

Jaiquawn Jarrett S Doubtful Knee

Willie Colon G Questionable Knee

Dion Bailey S Probable Elbow

Quinton Coples LB Probable Elbow

Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Probable right Elbow

Damon Harrison DT Probable Finger

Buster Skrine CB Probable Concussion

Eric Decker WR Probable Knee

Brandon Marshall WR Probable Calf

Chris Owusu WR Probable Knee

Marcus Williams CB Probable Hamstring

NE

Marcus Cannon T Out Toe

Rufus Johnson LB Out Illness

Jabaal Sheard DE Out Ankle

Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Hamstring

Trey Flowers DE Questionable Shoulder

Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Ribs

Josh Kline G Questionable Shoulder

Dion Lewis RB Questionable Abdomen

Keshawn Martin WR Questionable Hamstring

Shaquille Mason G Questionable Knee

Matt Slater WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 23

–

NE 30

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:52 FG NE (12:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 22nd consecutive FG, new personal best NYJ 0 – NE 3
Q1 07:32 FG NYJ (7:32) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-S.Weatherford. NYJ 3 – NE 3
Q2 12:33 TD NYJ (12:33) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 11-J.Kerley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – NE 3
Q2 06:26 TD NE (6:26) 62-R.Wendell reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – NE 9
Q2 02:05 FG NE (2:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NYJ 10 – NE 13
Q3 11:14 FG NE (11:14) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NYJ 10 – NE 16
Q3 04:12 TD NYJ (4:12) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 33-C.Ivory for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 16 – NE 16
Q4 12:54 FG NYJ (12:54) 2-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-S.Weatherford. NYJ 20 – NE 16
Q4 07:22 TD NE (7:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 20 – NE 22
Q4 01:18 TD NE (1:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 87-Gronkowski 18th career 100-yard game, extends his Patriots record for a TE. NYJ 20 – NE 29
Q4 00:23 FG NYJ (:23) 2-N.Folk 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-S.Weatherford. NYJ 23 – NE 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NE 4th & 11 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

(12:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 22nd consecutive FG, new personal best
Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

(7:32) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-S.Weatherford.
Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 48%

(5:11) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.
Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP

p(convert) 53%

(11:42) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 84

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP

p(convert) 63%

(10:02) 3-S.Weatherford punts 31 yards to NYJ 47, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-34-D.Bailey.
Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

(6:26) 62-R.Wendell reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP

p(convert) 71%

(5:00) 3-S.Weatherford punts 47 yards to NE 24, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 17 yards (58-E.Henderson).
Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 77%

(2:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(:24) 3-S.Weatherford punts 50 yards to NE 36, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-J.Edelman to NE 46 for 10 yards (57-T.Reilly).
Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

(11:14) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 53%

(2:11) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to NYJ 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 17 for 6 yards (18-M.Slater).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

(12:54) 2-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-S.Weatherford.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(5:39) 3-S.Weatherford punts 33 yards to NE 21, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at NE 32 for 11 yards (57-T.Reilly).