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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 58

New England Patriots 16 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to NYJ 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 17 for 6 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP