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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 28

New England Patriots 10 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model