4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 12

New York Jets 17 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 2-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-S.Weatherford.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model