4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 20

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 22nd consecutive FG, new personal best

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.48 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model