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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2015-10-18 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

ARI
73.0%
PIT
27.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.240 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Michael Vick (PIT) -0.313 vs Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.341 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.176 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 23
–
PIT 17
Projected margin: ARI by 6 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

ARI

Alex Okafor LB Out Calf
Mike Iupati G Questionable Back
Rashad Johnson S Questionable Thigh
LaMarr Woodley LB Questionable Chest
Tony Jefferson S Probable Neck
J.J. Nelson WR Probable Shoulder
Jared Veldheer T Probable Ribs
Justin Bethel CB Probable Foot
John Brown WR Probable Hamstring
Darren Fells TE Probable Hip
Tyrann Mathieu S Probable Heel

PIT

Will Allen S Out Ankle
Ben Roethlisberger QB Out Knee
Ryan Shazier LB Out Shoulder
Cortez Allen CB Questionable Knee
Jarvis Jones LB Questionable Hip
James Harrison LB Probable Illness
Doug Legursky C Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 13
–
PIT 25

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:20 TD ARI (8:20) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 15-M.Floyd for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 06:11 FG PIT (6:11) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. ARI 7 – PIT 3
  • Q2 00:51 FG ARI (:51) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 10 – PIT 3
  • Q3 11:17 FG PIT (11:17) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. ARI 10 – PIT 6
  • Q3 08:51 TD PIT (8:51) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass short right to 10-M.Bryant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – PIT 12
  • Q3 02:37 FG PIT (2:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. ARI 10 – PIT 15
  • Q4 15:00 FG ARI (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 13 – PIT 15
  • Q4 07:21 FG PIT (7:21) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. ARI 13 – PIT 18
  • Q4 02:15 TD PIT (2:15) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass short middle to 10-M.Bryant for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. PENALTY on ARI-93-C.Campbell, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ARI 13 – PIT 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 31 yards to PIT 47, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:27) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to ARI 34, Center-60-G.Warren. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 40 for 6 yards (45-R.Nix).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 34%

    (3:47) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to ARI 2, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-25-B.Boykin.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 25%

    (14:12) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:09) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to ARI 16, Center-60-G.Warren. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 33 for 17 yards (46-W.Johnson).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 73%

    (9:23) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 73%

    (6:11) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (:51) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 79 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 71%

    (11:17) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 64%

    (2:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 87%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (7:21) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 13-JA.Brown. Coverage by #22 Gay, Pressure by #97 Heyward.