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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 48

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.61 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP