Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 84

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(11:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 31 yards to PIT 47, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.63 EP
67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 84, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model