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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:11) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.32 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP