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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:09) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to ARI 16, Center-60-G.Warren. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 33 for 17 yards (46-W.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.66 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP