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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2015-10-04 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

KC
24.4%
CIN
75.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.349 vs Alex Smith (KC) -0.021 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: -0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 19
–
CIN 29
Projected margin: CIN by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

KC

Albert Wilson WR Questionable Shoulder
Jason Avant WR Probable Knee
Chris Conley WR Probable Shoulder
Jamell Fleming CB Probable Hip
Joshua Mauga LB Probable Achilles

CIN

George Iloka S Doubtful Ankle
Marcus Hardison DT Questionable Knee
Adam Jones CB Questionable Elbow
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Probable Shoulder
Pat Sims DT Probable Hip
Andre Smith T Probable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 21
–
CIN 36

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:41 TD CIN (11:41) 32-J.Hill right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 04:38 FG KC (4:38) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – CIN 7
  • Q1 00:58 TD CIN (:58) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard right guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 3 – CIN 13
  • Q2 12:48 FG KC (12:48) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 6 – CIN 14
  • Q2 06:13 FG KC (6:13) 5-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 9 – CIN 14
  • Q2 00:09 FG KC (:09) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 12 – CIN 14
  • Q3 08:53 TD CIN (8:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-B.Tate for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – CIN 20
  • Q3 04:42 FG KC (4:42) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 15 – CIN 21
  • Q3 00:18 TD CIN (:18) (Shotgun) 32-J.Hill left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 15 – CIN 27
  • Q4 09:31 FG KC (9:31) 5-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 18 – CIN 29
  • Q4 04:54 TD CIN (4:54) 32-J.Hill right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 18 – CIN 35
  • Q4 02:39 FG KC (2:39) 5-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 21 – CIN 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (4:38) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (12:48) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:55) 10-K.Huber punts 67 yards to KC 7, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 68%

    (6:13) 5-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 82%

    (4:33) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 92%

    (:09) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 19 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:03) 2-D.Colquitt punts 62 yards to CIN 26, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-B.Tate pushed ob at CIN 36 for 10 yards (30-J.Fleming). PENALTY on CIN-26-J.Shaw, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 33. Tate credited with 7 return yards due to penalty

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 87%

    (4:42) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:07) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to KC 25, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (9:31) 5-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%

    (2:39) 5-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 42%

    (1:13) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to KC 1, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-19-B.Tate.