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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 4, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model