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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 43

Cincinnati Bengals 36 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to KC 1, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP