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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 5-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.96 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model