Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 88

Kansas City Chiefs 12 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 2-D.Colquitt punts 62 yards to CIN 26, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-B.Tate pushed ob at CIN 36 for 10 yards (30-J.Fleming). PENALTY on CIN-26-J.Shaw, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 33. Tate credited with 7 return yards due to penalty

The Three Options

GO -3.52 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.32 EP
75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 88, worth -5.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model