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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
STL Home

St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 13:00 Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

PIT
86.9%
STL
13.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.376 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Nick Foles (LA) -0.073 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.618 EPA/dropback
  • LA offense: -0.201 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PIT 29
–
STL 17
Projected margin: PIT by 12 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PIT

Daniel McCullers DT Out Knee
Ryan Shazier LB Out Shoulder
Cortez Allen CB Questionable Knee
William Gay CB Probable Not Injury Related
Cameron Heyward DE Probable Elbow
Markus Wheaton WR Probable Chest

STL

Todd Gurley RB Questionable Knee
Johnny Hekker P Probable Illness
Chase Reynolds RB Probable Knee
Eugene Sims DE Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 12
–
STL 6

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 28 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:21 FG PIT (7:21) 8-J.Scobee 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – STL 0
  • Q2 13:04 TD PIT (13:04) 26-L.Bell right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PIT 9 – STL 0
  • Q2 02:10 FG LA (2:10) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. PIT 9 – STL 3
  • Q4 05:42 FG LA (5:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. PIT 9 – STL 6
  • Q4 02:00 FG PIT (2:00) 8-J.Scobee 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 12 – STL 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (7:21) 8-J.Scobee 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 26%

    (4:11) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to PIT 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 34%

    (8:20) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete short left to 12-S.Bailey.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 75%

    (2:10) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 49%

    (10:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 20 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:41) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to LA 3, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 15 for 12 yards (35-R.Ventrone).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 26%

    (1:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to PIT 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:37) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to PIT 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (9:58) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to LA 9, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 29 for 20 yards (57-T.Garvin).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (5:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 9 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 28%

    (3:09) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to LA 17, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 87%

    (2:00) 8-J.Scobee 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:19) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short left to 18-K.Britt to LA 46 for 7 yards (41-A.Blake). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass incomplete short left to 18-K.Britt (41-A.Blake).