4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-J.Scobee 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.70 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model