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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.20 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model