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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to LA 17, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.56 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model