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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 42

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model