OAK @ CLE — 4th & Data

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HC Jack Del Rio

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HC Mike Pettine

Sunday 2015-09-27 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 💨 Windy Spread 3.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

OAK

57.0%

CLE

43.0%

💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CLE offense: -0.193 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
QB edge to LV: Josh McCown (CLE) -0.035 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.236 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Josh McCown in place of Johnny Manziel)
LV defense: +0.233 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
LV offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
CLE defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

OAK 24

–

CLE 23

Projected margin: OAK by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

OAK

Justin Ellis DT Out Ankle

Benson Mayowa DE Out Knee

Jamize Olawale RB Questionable Ankle

Justin Tuck DE Probable Knee

Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder

CLE

Scott Solomon LB Out Ankle

Robert Turbin RB Out Ankle

K'Waun Williams CB Out Concussion

Desmond Bryant DE Questionable Shoulder

Justin Gilbert CB Questionable Hamstring

Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow

Josh McCown QB Probable Concussion

Barkevious Mingo LB Probable Knee

Mitchell Schwartz T Probable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 27

–

CLE 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:37 FG LV (8:37) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 3 – CLE 0
Q2 06:49 TD LV (6:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 18-A.Holmes for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 9 – CLE 0
Q2 01:48 FG CLE (1:48) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. OAK 10 – CLE 3
Q2 00:24 TD LV (:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-S.Roberts for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 16 – CLE 3
Q3 09:26 FG LV (9:26) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 20 – CLE 3
Q3 03:38 TD CLE (3:38) 13-J.McCown pass deep right to 82-G.Barnidge for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 20 – CLE 9
Q4 14:32 TD LV (14:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-L.Murray right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 26 – CLE 10
Q4 11:01 FG CLE (11:01) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. OAK 27 – CLE 13
Q4 06:32 TD CLE (6:32) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 11-T.Benjamin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 27 – CLE 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

(8:37) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
Q1 CLE 4th & 14 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(5:52) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LV 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 38-T.Carrie to LV 31 for 6 yards (51-B.Mingo).
Q1 LV 4th & 11 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(2:52) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to CLE 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 20 for 5 yards (56-L.Alexander).
Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 14%

(14:20) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 41 yards to LV 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.
Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 80

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP

p(convert) 63%

(13:25) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to CLE 39, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 43 for 4 yards (45-M.Reece). PENALTY on CLE-15-M.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 43.
Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(12:24) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LV 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-A.Cooper to LV 20 for 9 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

(1:48) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.
Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(13:41) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 67 yards to LV 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-A.Cooper to LV 8 for -9 yards (58-C.Kirksey; 24-J.Bademosi).
Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%

(9:26) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 54

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 58%

(7:12) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short left to 82-G.Barnidge to LV 48 for 6 yards (53-M.Smith). LV-98-C.Wilson was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 83%

(11:01) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.
Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 77 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(4:09) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 34 yards to CLE 43, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-T.Benjamin MUFFS catch, touched at CLE 43, RECOVERED by LV-58-N.Ball at CLE 43. 58-N.Ball to CLE 43 for no gain (11-T.Benjamin). Muff occurred on a fair catch
Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 38 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 47%

(2:36) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 36 yards to CLE 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-22-T.Jones. Cleveland challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 02:26.)