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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(11:01) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.40 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model