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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short left to 82-G.Barnidge to LV 48 for 6 yards (53-M.Smith). LV-98-C.Wilson was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.50 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model