Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

(2:52) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to CLE 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 20 for 5 yards (56-L.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model