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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:52) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LV 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 38-T.Carrie to LV 31 for 6 yards (51-B.Mingo).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model