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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

MIA
38.5%
WAS
61.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to WAS: Kirk Cousins (WAS) -0.046 vs Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.116 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIA 20
–
WAS 22
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

MIA

Jason Fox T Doubtful Concussion
Branden Albert T Probable Knee
LaMichael James RB Probable Shoulder
DeVante Parker WR Probable Foot
Jamar Taylor CB Probable Thigh

WAS

Tom Compton T Questionable Calf
Jackson Jeffcoat LB Questionable Thigh
Robert Griffin QB Probable Concussion
Frank Kearse DE Probable Shoulder
Kory Lichtensteiger C Probable Finger

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 17
–
WAS 10

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:45 FG WAS (7:45) 2-K.Forbath 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. MIA 0 – WAS 3
  • Q2 01:54 TD WAS (1:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 86-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – WAS 9
  • Q2 00:32 TD MIA (:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 18-R.Matthews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – WAS 10
  • Q4 12:10 FG MIA (12:10) 3-A.Franks 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 10 – WAS 10
  • Q4 10:38 TD MIA (10:38) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to MIA 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-J.Landry for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – WAS 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 78%

    (7:45) 2-K.Forbath 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:02) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to WAS 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 23 for 10 yards (30-Z.Bowman; 31-M.Thomas).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 78%

    (:32) 2-K.Forbath 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 22%

    (13:54) 4-M.Darr punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 95%

    (10:44) 72-J.Linkenbach reported in as eligible. 34-D.Williams left end to WAS 12 for no gain (91-R.Kerrigan).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 12 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 41%

    (10:48) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to MIA 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-J.Landry to MIA 13 for 5 yards (20-J.Johnson).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:31) 4-M.Darr punts 63 yards to WAS 6, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 19 for 13 yards (42-S.Paysinger). PENALTY on MIA-28-Bo.McCain, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 19.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 18 at the 36
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 57%

    (2:16) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (12:10) 3-A.Franks 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:38) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to MIA 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-J.Landry for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:08) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to WAS 31, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (2:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 86-J.Reed.