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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Miami Dolphins
4th & 9 at the 50
Miami Dolphins 0 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(13:54) 4-M.Darr punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.88 EP
-
33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.94 EP
- 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.79 EP
KICK
-1.68 EP
- 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
- 78% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
