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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 42

Washington Commanders 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to MIA 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-J.Landry to MIA 13 for 5 yards (20-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.03 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model