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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 36

Washington Commanders 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.87 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model